Monthly Archives: October 2015

Japanese stocks, Stocks

Japan Post IPO: Financials, valuation and prospectus

The Japanese government is planning the IPOs of Japan Post Holdings, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance. The total size of these IPOs is expected to be over $11 billions and will be one of the biggest IPOs in Japan’s history. The date of the IPO is the 4th of November.

Japan Post Holdings is a holding company that contains three other companies: Japan Post, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance. As it is legally determined that Japan Post Holdings must own 100% of the shares of Japan Post, the company engaged in the postal service, this time the government is selling the shares of the other three companies, including the holding company.

As the stock prices are already determined, this article aims to examine the valuations of the three firms.

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Trading strategies

How to trade options [1]: what are call options and put options?

This is the first article of a series, “How to trade options”, which explains how to trade options and what they are. First of all, we explain here the basics of call options and put options.

Options are a way to gain a profit in a market that neither constantly goes up nor goes down. With a long-lasting market trend such as stocks after 2008 or gold after 2012, bullish or bearish, you may simply buy or short sell a financial instrument.

On the other hand, when you know a market will not move for a while or when you know it will be volatile but do not know if it goes up or down eventually, neither buying nor short selling will give you any profit. However, with options, you can gain a profit even in such a market. This is why we explains here about options.

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Currencies, USD/JPY

USD/JPY: If the Fed postpones a rate hike, Japan’s QE expansion would also be delayed

As the Fed remains unclear about when it raises interest rates, the investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s will for a rate hike. The doller is getting weak, and the gold price rebounded.

In the global markets, we also need to note that one central bank’s policy affects another central bank’s policy, and at the moment, this is the most true with the Fed and the Bank of Japan.

The Fed’s aim

As we explained in the following article, the Fed is not waiting for the further improvement of the labour market, but we estimate its aim is the depreciation of the stock market itself:

Continue reading USD/JPY: If the Fed postpones a rate hike, Japan’s QE expansion would also be delayed →

European stock market, Japanese stock market, Market outlook, US stock market

World’s GDP & stock market comparison: southern Europe finally starts to recover, Japan sinks

As we have written, there is no large economy in the world that is growing rapidly. Reflecting the decreasing demands in the world, including the Chinese economy slowdown, the commodity markets completely collapsed, such as copper and iron ore.

However, it does not mean any single small country does not enjoy any significant growth. Thus, we review the world’s economy again to find out which area is the most profitable for investors to bet on.

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European stock market, Market outlook

The fatal flaw of the euro zone: how Germany is increasing the Greek debt

After much ado, Greece reached an agreement with the Troika of creditors, and investors seem to be convinced that the crisis is over, as the yield of 10-year Greek government bond, which was largely sold before the agreement, went down to 8% from 19%.

Is the Greek debt crisis really over? Is the Greek economy going to recover? Unfortunately, you would know it will not as long as it is in the euro zone, if you are familiar with economics. Germans do not want to admit it. Greeks do not want to believe it.

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Market outlook, US stock market

“Bond King” Bill Gross explains how to trade in equity markets amid the turmoil

Bill Gross, a famed bond fund manager of Janus Capital, explained in the Twitter account of Janus Capital about how to trade in the very volatile stock markets.

Earlier this year, Mr Gross also successfully predicted the bear market in German bonds and the plunge of the Chinese stocks. He is without a doubt one of the greatest  investors who correctly understand the market situation before the Fed’s rate hikes, the opinion of whom is worthwhile to follow.

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Market outlook, US stock market

S&P 500 could go down by 30% in 2015 to urge central banks to ease further

After the stock plunge in August, the global stock markets rebounded once, and they are now confirming their second bottom. The stock market plunge was essentially caused by the lack of the driving force for the global economies, proven by the Chinese slowdown, and it will continue until the authorities take any action, namely further monetary easing or financial stimulus.

2015-10-1-s-and-p-500-chart

However, if S&P 500 goes down by more than 20% from the peak, there would be a possibility that the central banks would rescue the financial markets. As we have been bearish about the stocks before August, we are also responsible to explain the future of this bear market.

Continue reading S&P 500 could go down by 30% in 2015 to urge central banks to ease further →