Monthly Archives: September 2015

Market outlook, US stock market

The Fed wants US stocks to go down to degas the QE bubble

In September, despite the market’s speculating that the Fed might raise interest rates, the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, postponing a rate hike.

Despite our guess, it also did not particularly emphasize its intention to raise rates within the year, even though there is an obvious difference of recognition between the Fed and investors in expecting how fast the Fed is going to raise rates in the next few years.

Is the Fed intentionally leaving the gap as it is? If the answer is yes, and there is some hidden strategy behind the Fed’s attitude, it might imply what the Fed truly wants to do, and it is neither about the labour market nor the inflation. It is something else.

Continue reading The Fed wants US stocks to go down to degas the QE bubble →

News

The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, no rate hike for September

The FOMC meeting was held on 17th of September, and the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged. Investors were speculating the Fed might raise interest rates in this meeting.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker voted against this decision, insisting the Fed should raise interest rates by 0.25%.

Press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled after this meeting. She is expected to explain about this decision and the Fed’s future monetary policies. For more information about the Fed’s rate hike, see the following articles:

Foreign exchange market, Market outlook, US stock market

Will the Fed raise interest rates in FOMC on 17 Sep?

On 16-17 Sep, the Fed will hold the FOMC meeting with a possibility of a rate hike for the first time since the subprime mortgage crisis. The result will be published on the 17th.

Although we have already been writing about the Fed’s rate hike, we would like to summarize our opinions here. We regard the following 2 scenarios as highly likely: Continue reading Will the Fed raise interest rates in FOMC on 17 Sep? →

Market outlook, US stock market

Why 2015 resembles 1987 before Black Monday: central banks and rate hikes

After the radical plunge in the global stock markets in August, the stock prices rebounded once and are seeking its direction after this turmoil.

Investors are carefully watching what the central banks will do. Some of them first even expected the Fed might restart the QE, but after the Fed policymakers revealed to remain seeking a rate hike, this kind of subjective hopes disappeared. We already explained why they would remain hawkish:

Continue reading Why 2015 resembles 1987 before Black Monday: central banks and rate hikes →